• Nintendo forecasts 15 million Switch 2 sales in its first fiscal year, ending March 2026, considered conservative due to tariff uncertainties.
• The Switch 2 launch is scheduled for June, with a price of $449.99, and pre-orders have shown strong demand despite concerns about tariffs.
• Tariffs are a significant concern for Nintendo, potentially impacting pricing and demand in the US market, especially if prices need to be adjusted.

Nintendo has announced its sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2 console, estimating 15 million units sold in its first fiscal year. This forecast is viewed as conservative by analysts, primarily due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs on imported goods. The Switch 2, launching in June, faces potential headwinds from these tariffs, which could impact pricing and consumer demand, particularly in the crucial U.S. market. The company also announced that it expects to sell 45 million units of software during the same period. Nintendo's conservative approach comes as sales of the original Switch decline, highlighting the importance of a successful Switch 2 launch.

• What: Nintendo forecasts 15 million Switch 2 sales for the fiscal year ending March 2026, launches in June.
• Who: Nintendo, Shuntaro Furukawa (Nintendo President), Daniel Ahmad (Niko Partners), George Jijiashvili (Omdia), Serkan Toto (Kantan Games).
• When: Forecast issued in May 2025, Switch 2 launch in June, fiscal year ends March 2026, pre-orders started April 24.
• Where: Global, with specific focus on the United States and Japan.

Nintendo's conservative sales forecast for the Switch 2 reflects the company's cautious approach given the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs. While pre-order demand appears strong, the potential impact of tariffs on pricing and consumer demand remains a significant concern. The forecasts consider existing tariff rates, but potential increases could negatively affect sales. Analysts suggest the 15 million unit forecast is a lowball estimate. The success of the Switch 2 is crucial for Nintendo, especially as sales of the original Switch decline. The company is leaning on popular franchises to drive sales. Investors seem optimistic with shares rising significantly this year.

Nintendo loves lowballing their forecasts, and the current climate around tariffs gives them all the reason to be more cautious than ever.

Switch 2 will launch into a stronger position than its predecessor, with over 100 million active Switch users providing a strong foundation for adoption

The Nintendo Switch 2 launch on June 5th is highly anticipated, with strong pre-order demand indicating significant consumer interest. However, Nintendo faces considerable challenges, primarily related to tariffs that could impact sales, profitability, and potentially force price adjustments. Nintendo has issued a conservative sales forecast of 15 million units by March 2026, a figure influenced by the unpredictability surrounding tariffs, pricing, and production, despite positive pre-order momentum. This forecast, while seemingly cautious, would still position the Switch 2 as one of the biggest console launches of all time, exceeding the original Switch's first-year sales. The potential impact of tariffs is multifaceted, with concerns that increased tariffs and rising daily expenses could reduce consumer spending on gaming. Nintendo has delayed pre-orders due to tariff concerns and is actively assessing the situation, but the initial $449.99 price tag was not affected by the tariffs. While Nintendo aims to absorb some tariff costs, significant changes could necessitate price adjustments, potentially affecting demand, especially in the critical US market, which accounts for a substantial portion of Nintendo's sales. Despite these challenges, the Switch 2 boasts a compelling launch lineup, including titles like "Mario Kart World" and enhanced versions of "The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild" and "Tears of the Kingdom". Moreover, the console's launch will also introduce GameCube titles to the Nintendo Switch Online library. The actual success of the Switch 2 will hinge on navigating the tariff landscape, maintaining competitive pricing, and delivering a strong software offering, all while managing potentially strained supply chains.